Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
