Foreign Office Advised Against Military Action to Topple Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released documents reveal that the UK's diplomatic corps cautioned against British military intervention to remove the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".

Policy Papers Show Deliberations on Addressing a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Policy papers from Tony Blair's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Ineffective

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was not working, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Courses considered in the documents included:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that changing a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "serious option," and warned that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military intervention would result in heavy casualties and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a severe human and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, large-scale refugee flows, and regional instability – we assess that no nation in Africa would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper continues: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Long-Term Strategy Advocated

The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We should work out a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a military takeover in 2017, aged 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a military coalition to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the ex-British leader.